The 1 year+ HODL wave is an indicator created by Phillip Swift to identify tops and bottoms in the bitcoin market, building on the HODL waves work by Unchained Capital.
The indicator shows the percentage of bitcoin that hasn’t moved for one year or longer as a percentage of the total supply. Movements in the percentage of coins HODL’d for 1 year or more correspond with market tops and bottoms.
For instance, the percentage of coins held for 1 year or more typically decreases as the price rallies and targets a new high in a cycle. As the price of bitcoin rises, holders will cash out some of their profits and the coins they held will be transferred, taking these coins of the 1 year HODL wave.
The chart below illustrates this dynamic.
Market tops are indicated by red circles, while bottoms are shown with green circles. The chart shows that the percentage of coins held for 1 year or more starts decreasing as bitcoin enters bullish phases. However, in downward trending markets, the 1 year HODL percentage increases.
Bottoms and tops in the 1 year HODL wave occur shortly after extremes in the price of bitcoin.
To learn more about HODL waves, check out Unchained Capital’s blog post on the topic.